Sanfilippo, PG and Hewitt, AW and Mackey, DA, The importance of conditional probability in diagnostic reasoning and clinical decision making: A primer for the eye care practitioner, Ophthalmic Epidemiology, 24, (2) pp. 81-89. ISSN 0928-6586 (2017) [Refereed Article]
© 2017 Taylor & Francis
Methods: We conducted a review of the importance of conditional probability in diagnostic testing for the eye care practitioner.
Results: Eye care practitioners use diagnostic tests on a daily basis to assist in clinical decision making and optimizing patient care and management. These tests provide probabilistic information that can enable the clinician to increase (or decrease) their level of certainty about the presence of a particular condition. While an understanding of the characteristics of diagnostic tests are essential to facilitate proper interpretation of test results and disease risk, many practitioners either confuse or misinterpret these measures.
Conclusions: In the interests of their patients, practitioners should be aware of the basic concepts associated with diagnostic testing and the simple mathematical rule that underpins them. Importantly, the practitioner needs to recognize that the prevalence of a disease in the population greatly determines the clinical value of a diagnostic test.
|Item Type:||Refereed Article|
|Keywords:||Bayes theorem, conditional probabilit, diagnostic test|
|Research Division:||Medical and Health Sciences|
|Research Group:||Ophthalmology and Optometry|
|Objective Group:||Clinical Health (Organs, Diseases and Abnormal Conditions)|
|Objective Field:||Hearing, Vision, Speech and Their Disorders|
|UTAS Author:||Hewitt, AW (Professor Alex Hewitt)|
|UTAS Author:||Mackey, DA (Professor David Mackey)|
|Deposited By:||Menzies Institute for Medical Research|
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