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Technology selection - the impact of economic risk on decision making
Citation
King, AS and Elliott, NG and James, MA and MacLeod, CK and Bjorndal, T, Technology selection - the impact of economic risk on decision making, Aquaculture Economics and Management, 22, (1) pp. 383-409. ISSN 1365-7305 (2018) [Refereed Article]
Copyright Statement
Copyright 2016 Taylor & Francis
DOI: doi:10.1080/13657305.2016.1261962
Abstract
Developing an understanding of economic variance (risk) is critical when evaluating alternative aquaculture production technologies. This article assesses the efficacy of employing a quantitative stochastic analysis technique to support technology selection decision making by undertaking a case study investment assessment of three alternative production expansion strategies (offshore sea-pens, land-based RAS growout and larger post-smolt) for the Tasmanian salmon industry. Results demonstrate that salmon aquaculture is undertaken with considerable underlying levels of economic risk, expansion offshore probably represents the lowest initial capital investment and greatest economic return, and that levels of financial uncertainty increase with land-based RAS production. The study highlights stochastic modeling provides significant "added-value" over single-point deterministic analysis and that developing an appreciation of the input variability is a key component in critically evaluating alternative production technologies.
Item Details
Item Type: | Refereed Article |
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Keywords: | aquaculture, qualitative modeling, technology, economics, decision making, Monte Carlo simulation, production technology, risk, stochastic modeling |
Research Division: | Agricultural, Veterinary and Food Sciences |
Research Group: | Fisheries sciences |
Research Field: | Aquaculture |
Objective Division: | Animal Production and Animal Primary Products |
Objective Group: | Fisheries - aquaculture |
Objective Field: | Aquaculture fin fish (excl. tuna) |
UTAS Author: | King, AS (Mr Andrew King) |
UTAS Author: | MacLeod, CK (Associate Professor Catriona MacLeod) |
ID Code: | 114768 |
Year Published: | 2018 (online first 2016) |
Web of Science® Times Cited: | 7 |
Deposited By: | Sustainable Marine Research Collaboration |
Deposited On: | 2017-02-27 |
Last Modified: | 2019-03-15 |
Downloads: | 0 |
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