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Forecasting marine invasions under climate change: biotic interactions and demographic processes matter


Mellin, C and Lurgi, M and Matthews, S and MacNeil, MA and Caley, MJ and Bax, N and Przeslawski, R and Fordham, DA, Forecasting marine invasions under climate change: biotic interactions and demographic processes matter, Biological Conservation, 204, (Part B) pp. 459-467. ISSN 0006-3207 (2016) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

Copyright 2016 Elsevier Ltd.

DOI: doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2016.11.008


Biological invasions are one of the most significant threats to marine biodiversity, and can be facilitated and amplified by climate change. Among all aspects of invasion biology, biotic interactions between invaders and native species are of particular importance. They strongly influence the invasion velocity as well as species responses to climate-induced stressors. Yet the effects of biotic interactions and other important demographic processes remain overlooked among most studies of climate-mediated invasions. We critically assessed current modelling techniques for forecasting marine invasions under climate change, with a particular focus on their ability to account for important biotic interactions and demographic processes. We show that coupled range dynamics models currently represent the most comprehensive and promising approach for modelling and managing marine invasions under climate change. We show, using the crown-of-thorns seastar (Acanthaster planci), why model architectures that account for biotic interactions and demographic and spatial processes (and their interaction) are required to provide ecologically realistic predictions of the distribution and abundance of invader species, both under present-day conditions and into the future. We suggest potential solutions to inform data-poor situations, such as Bayesian parameter estimation and meta-analysis, and identify strategic and targeted gaps in marine invasion research.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:Acanthaster planci, alien species, climate change, crown-of-thorns seastar, eange shift, exotic species, marine biodiversity, metapopulation model, non-indigenous species, biotic interactions
Research Division:Environmental Sciences
Research Group:Environmental management
Research Field:Conservation and biodiversity
Objective Division:Environmental Management
Objective Group:Terrestrial systems and management
Objective Field:Assessment and management of terrestrial ecosystems
UTAS Author:Bax, N (Professor Nicholas Bax)
ID Code:114605
Year Published:2016
Web of Science® Times Cited:24
Deposited By:Ecology and Biodiversity
Deposited On:2017-02-21
Last Modified:2018-04-20

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