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Probabilistic load flow analysis in Distribution Networks with distributed solar generation


Warren, JJ and Negnevitsky, M and Nguyen, T, Probabilistic load flow analysis in Distribution Networks with distributed solar generation, Proceedings of the IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting 2016, 17-21 July 2016, Boston, MA, pp. 1-5. ISBN 978-1-5090-4168-8 (2016) [Refereed Conference Paper]

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Copyright 2016 IEEE

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DOI: doi:10.1109/PESGM.2016.7741790


This paper presents a method of evaluating node voltages within distribution network using probabilistic load flow (PLF) analysis. It builds on the traditional deterministic load flow (DLF) approach which gives a picture of said network at one specific point in time. The probabilistic approach improves this by taking into account network uncertainties such as fluctuations in household consumption and distributed solar generation. Real household metering and rooftop solar output data was taken from throughout Tasmania distribution network to accurately model these network uncertainties as probabilistic variables. Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS) is performed using this data on a real section of the distribution network as a case study to show applicability of the developed methodology. The model is validated using historical data from this section of the network. Results show a strong potential for application by Distribution Network Service Providers (DNSP).

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Conference Paper
Keywords:probabilistic load flow, distributed generation, solar photovoltaic power, Monte-Carlo simulation
Research Division:Engineering
Research Group:Electrical engineering
Research Field:Electrical energy generation (incl. renewables, excl. photovoltaics)
Objective Division:Energy
Objective Group:Energy storage, distribution and supply
Objective Field:Energy services and utilities
UTAS Author:Warren, JJ (Mr Julian Warren)
UTAS Author:Negnevitsky, M (Professor Michael Negnevitsky)
ID Code:114452
Year Published:2016
Web of Science® Times Cited:6
Deposited By:Engineering
Deposited On:2017-02-15
Last Modified:2017-11-06
Downloads:6 View Download Statistics

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