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The uncertain impact of climate change on forest ecosystems - How qualitative modelling can guide future research for quantitative model development

Citation

Herr, A and Dambacher, JM and Pinkard, E and Glen, M and Mohammed, C and Wardlaw, T, The uncertain impact of climate change on forest ecosystems - How qualitative modelling can guide future research for quantitative model development, Environmental Modelling and Software, 76 pp. 95-107. ISSN 1364-8152 (2016) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

Crown Copyright 2015

DOI: doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.10.023

Abstract

Climate change could significantly alter forest productivity and climax states. Hence modelling productivity under climate change will need to account for many alternative ecosystem states. We apply qualitative modelling to identify the most likely ecosystem representations for a well-researched Tasmanian forest. Its main ecosystem is a tiered forest with rainforest, wet sclerophyll and myrtaceae components. Interactions between these components are uncertain, especially under additional pressures from climate change. Qualitative modelling is a structured method to analyse these uncertainties. We identify the most appropriate models and research efforts for model development. Further, we identify research needs for interactions between root pathogens and forest components, with research on some impacts of system components on fire being ruled out. The qualitative modelling approach applied here was useful in identifying research priorities for modelling complex ecosystems, even under uncertain system understanding or deficiencies in quantitative data.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:Community matrix, Forest ecosystem, Loop analysis, Warra LTER
Research Division:Environmental Sciences
Research Group:Environmental Science and Management
Research Field:Environmental Impact Assessment
Objective Division:Plant Production and Plant Primary Products
Objective Group:Forestry
Objective Field:Native Forests
Author:Glen, M (Dr Morag Glen)
Author:Mohammed, C (Associate Professor Caroline Mohammed)
ID Code:113790
Year Published:2016
Web of Science® Times Cited:1
Deposited By:Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture
Deposited On:2017-01-20
Last Modified:2017-10-31
Downloads:0

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