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A climatological model of North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone genesis, tracks and landfall

Citation

Wahiduzzaman, M and Oliver, ECJ and Wotherspoon, SJ and Holbrook, NJ, A climatological model of North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone genesis, tracks and landfall, Climate Dynamics, 49, (7-8) pp. 2585-2603. ISSN 0930-7575 (2017) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

Copyright 2016 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

DOI: doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3461-4

Abstract

Extensive damage and loss of life can be caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall. Modelling of TC landfall probability is beneficial to insurance/re-insurance companies, decision makers, government policy and planning, and residents in coastal areas. In this study, we develop a climatological model of tropical cyclone genesis, tracks and landfall for North Indian Ocean (NIO) rim countries based on kernel density estimation, a generalised additive model (GAM) including an Euler integration step, and landfall detection using a country mask approach. Using a 35-year record (19792013) of tropical cyclone track observations from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (part of the International Best Track Archive Climate Stewardship Version 6), the GAM is fitted to the observed cyclone track velocities as a smooth function of location in each season. The distribution of cyclone genesis points is approximated by kernel density estimation. The model simulated TCs are randomly selected from the fitted kernel (TC genesis), and the cyclone paths (TC tracks), represented by the GAM together with the application of stochastic innovations at each step, are simulated to generate a suite of NIO rim landfall statistics. Three hindcast validation methods are applied to evaluate the integrity of the model. First, leave-one-out cross validation is applied whereby the country of landfall is determined by the majority vote (considering the location by only highest percentage of landfall) from the simulated tracks. Second, the probability distribution of simulated landfall is evaluated against the observed landfall. Third, the distances between the point of observed landfall and simulated landfall are compared and quantified. Overall, the model shows very good cross-validated hindcast skill of modelled landfalling cyclones against observations in each of the NIO tropical cyclone seasons and for most NIO rim countries, with only a relatively small difference in the percentage of predicted landfall locations compared with observations.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:tropical cyclones, forecasting, statistical model
Research Division:Earth Sciences
Research Group:Oceanography
Research Field:Physical Oceanography
Objective Division:Environment
Objective Group:Climate and Climate Change
Objective Field:Climate Variability (excl. Social Impacts)
Author:Wahiduzzaman, M (Mr Mohammad Wahiduzzaman)
Author:Oliver, ECJ (Dr Eric Oliver)
Author:Wotherspoon, SJ (Dr Simon Wotherspoon)
Author:Holbrook, NJ (Associate Professor Neil Holbrook)
ID Code:113290
Year Published:2017 (online first 2016)
Deposited By:Centre for Oceans and Cryosphere
Deposited On:2016-12-20
Last Modified:2017-10-05
Downloads:0

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