Guessing to Prediction - a conceptual framework to predict LNG bunker demand profile in Australia

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is considered as one of the most appropriate alternative fuel to replace conventional marine fuels in near future. Major motivations for adopting LNG as a marine fuel are the recent international and regional regulations on ship emissions, increased awareness on improving air quality in strategic sea routes, demarcation of Emission Controlled Areas (ECAs) and the need for preserving marine environment including Particularly Sensitive Sea Areas (PSSAs) such as Great Barrier Reef, Coral Sea and Torres Strait in Australia. In recent years, European Union and few other individual countries such as Norway have been in the forefront in adopting LNG as a marine fuel and have invested heavily on research and development as well as in infrastructure development for LNG bunkering. The U.S. and Asian countries such as Singapore, South Korea and Japan have also followed the suit with similar interests in LNG adoption. Nevertheless, the lack of adequate LNG bunkering infrastructure along major sea routes and the early stages of the current developments found to be the main deterrent among several barriers for the adoption of LNG as a marine fuel.

Australia is well placed to become the leading LNG producer in the world by 2018 [1]. It is expected that Australia, as the world’s leading LNG supplier, could gain enormous economic benefits and preserve its invaluable ecosystems by actively adopting LNG as a marine fuel. Nevertheless, compared to the aforementioned leading countries, Australia has not taken strong initiatives so far to promote LNG as a marine fuel, build up necessary bunkering infrastructure and conduct relevant research and development work. Besides, a comprehensive scientific research to predict the future LNG demand in Australia has not been conducted so far. This leads to guessing rather than accurate prediction in taking important decisions related to the LNG future in Australia. In order to fill this knowledge gap, authors are developing an LNG bunker demand prediction method for Australia. This paper presents the conceptual framework of the prediction method. The projection could be used as a strategic decision support tool for Australian Government/authorities for development of LNG bunkering infrastructure in Australia, especially to identify the most important regions for bunkering.