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A network based approach to envisage potential accidents in offshore process facilities


Baksh, A-A and Abbassi, R and Garaniya, V and Khan, F, A network based approach to envisage potential accidents in offshore process facilities, Process Safety Progress, 36, (2) pp. 178-191. ISSN 1547-5913 (2017) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

Copyright 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers

DOI: doi:10.1002/prs.11854


Envisaging potential accidents in large scale offshore process facilities such as Floating Liquefied Natural Gas (FLNG) is complex and could be best characterized through evolving scenarios. In the present work, a new methodology is developed to incorporate evolving scenarios in a single model and predicts the likelihood of accident. The methodology comprises; (a) evolving scenario identification, (b) accident consequence framework development, (c) accident scenario likelihood estimation, and (d) ranking of the scenarios. Resulting events in the present work are modeled using a Bayesian network approach, which represents accident scenarios as cause-consequences networks. The methodology developed in this article is compared with case studies of ammonia and Liquefied Natural Gas from chemical and offshore process facility, respectively. The proposed method is able to differentiate the consequence of specific events and predict probabilities for such events along with continual updating of consequence probabilities of fire and explosion scenarios taking into account. The developed methodology can be used to envisage evolving scenarios that occur in the offshore oil and gas process industry; however, with further modification it can be applied to different sections of marine industry to predict the likelihood of such accidents.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:accident modelling, Bayesian network, consequence assessment, fire and explosion modeling, offshore system, scenario-based modeling
Research Division:Engineering
Research Group:Resources engineering and extractive metallurgy
Research Field:Petroleum and reservoir engineering
Objective Division:Energy
Objective Group:Mining and extraction of energy resources
Objective Field:Oil and gas extraction
UTAS Author:Baksh, A-A (Dr Md. Al-Amin Baksh)
UTAS Author:Abbassi, R (Dr Rouzbeh Abbassi)
UTAS Author:Garaniya, V (Associate Professor Vikram Garaniya)
UTAS Author:Khan, F (Professor Faisal Khan)
ID Code:111721
Year Published:2017 (online first 2016)
Web of Science® Times Cited:15
Deposited By:NC Maritime Engineering and Hydrodynamics
Deposited On:2016-10-03
Last Modified:2017-11-03

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