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A network based approach to envisage potential accidents in offshore process facilities
journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-18, 22:40 authored by Md Baksh, Rouzbeh Abbassi, Vikrambhai GaraniyaVikrambhai Garaniya, Faisal KhanFaisal KhanEnvisaging potential accidents in large scale offshore process facilities such as Floating Liquefied Natural Gas (FLNG) is complex and could be best characterized through evolving scenarios. In the present work, a new methodology is developed to incorporate evolving scenarios in a single model and predicts the likelihood of accident. The methodology comprises; (a) evolving scenario identification, (b) accident consequence framework development, (c) accident scenario likelihood estimation, and (d) ranking of the scenarios. Resulting events in the present work are modeled using a Bayesian network approach, which represents accident scenarios as cause-consequences networks. The methodology developed in this article is compared with case studies of ammonia and Liquefied Natural Gas from chemical and offshore process facility, respectively. The proposed method is able to differentiate the consequence of specific events and predict probabilities for such events along with continual updating of consequence probabilities of fire and explosion scenarios taking into account. The developed methodology can be used to envisage evolving scenarios that occur in the offshore oil and gas process industry; however, with further modification it can be applied to different sections of marine industry to predict the likelihood of such accidents.
History
Publication title
Process Safety ProgressVolume
36Pagination
178-191ISSN
1547-5913Department/School
Australian Maritime CollegePublisher
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.Place of publication
USARights statement
Copyright 2016 American Institute of Chemical EngineersRepository Status
- Restricted