Relating annual migration from high tuberculosis burden country of origin to changes in foreign-born tuberculosis notification rates in low-medium incidence European countries

The level of immigration from high tuberculosis (TB) burden countries (HBCs) which impacts on the foreign-born TB notification rate is largely unknown. In this work, we performed a cross-sectional analysis of epidemiological data from 2000 to 2013 from nine European countries: Austria, Denmark, Finland, Hungary, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. Crude notification rates were calculated for foreign- and native-born populations and a multiple-linear regression model predicting notification rates with HBC population data was generated. From 2000 to 2013, the population percentage with a foreign birthplace increased on average each year in all nine countries, ranging from +0.11%/year in the Netherlands to +0.66%/year in Spain. An annual increase in HBC migrants above +0.43% per year (95% Confidence Interval: 0.24-0.63%) corresponded with higher TB notification rates in the foreign-born population of the countries analyzed. This indicates that migration from HBCs can exert a measurable effect on the foreign-born TB notification rate. However, an increase in the foreign-born TB notification rate coincided with an average annual rise in national TB notification rates only in countries, Norway (+3.85%/year) and Sweden (+2.64%/year), which have a high proportion (>80%) of TB cases that are foreign-born.