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Structural break inference using information criteria in models estimated by two-stage least squares


Hall, AR and Osborn, DR and Sakkas, N, Structural break inference using information criteria in models estimated by two-stage least squares, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 36, (5) pp. 741-762. ISSN 0143-9782 (2015) [Refereed Article]


Copyright Statement

Copyright 2015 The Authors. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported (CC BY 3.0)

DOI: doi:10.1111/jtsa.12107


This paper makes two contributions in relation to the use of information criteria for inference on structural breaks when the coefficients of a linear model with endogenous regressors may experience multiple changes. First, we show that suitably defined information criteria yield consistent estimators of the number of breaks, when employed in the second stage of a two-stage least squares (2SLS) procedure with breaks in the reduced form taken into account in the first stage. Second, a Monte Carlo analysis investigates the finite sample performance of a range of criteria based on Bayesian information criterion (BIC), Hannan–Quinn information criterion (HQIC) and Akaike information criterion (AIC) for equations estimated by 2SLS. Versions of the consistent criteria BIC and HQIC perform well overall when the penalty term weights estimation of each break point more heavily than estimation of each coefficient, while AIC is inconsistent and badly over-estimates the number of true breaks.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:structural breaks, information criteria, instrumental variables estimation, JEL, C13, C26
Research Division:Economics
Research Group:Applied economics
Research Field:Macroeconomics (incl. monetary and fiscal theory)
Objective Division:Economic Framework
Objective Group:Other economic framework
Objective Field:Other economic framework not elsewhere classified
UTAS Author:Osborn, DR (Professor Denise Osborn)
ID Code:109914
Year Published:2015
Web of Science® Times Cited:4
Deposited By:TSBE
Deposited On:2016-07-07
Last Modified:2016-10-17
Downloads:166 View Download Statistics

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