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Modelling marine community responses to climate-driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem-based management


Marzloff, MP and Melbourne-Thomas, J and Hamon, KG and Hoshino, E and Jennings, S and van Putten, IE and Pecl, GT, Modelling marine community responses to climate-driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem-based management, Global Change Biology, 22, (7) pp. 2462-2474. ISSN 1354-1013 (2016) [Refereed Article]

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Copyright Statement

Copyright 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

DOI: doi:10.1111/gcb.13285


As a a consequence of global climate-driven changes, marine ecosystems are experiencing polewards redistributions of species - or range shifts across taxa and throughout latitudes worldwide. Research on these range shifts largely focuses on understanding and predicting changes in the distribution of individual species. The ecological effects of marine range shifts on ecosystem structure and functioning, as well as human coastal communities, can be large, yet remain difficult to anticipate and manage. Here, we use qualitative modelling of system feedback to understand the cumulative impacts of multiple species shifts in southeastern Australia, a global hotspot for ocean warming. We identify range-shifting species that can induce trophic cascades and affect ecosystem dynamics and productivity, and evaluate the potential effectiveness of alternative management interventions to mitigate these impacts. Our results suggest that the negative ecological impacts of multiple simultaneous range shifts generally add up. Thus, implementing whole-of-ecosystem management strategies and regular monitoring of range-shifting species of ecological concern are necessary to effectively intervene against undesirable consequences of marine range shifts at the regional scale. Our study illustrates how modelling system feedback with only limited qualitative information about ecosystem structure and range-shifting species can predict ecological consequences of multiple co-occurring range shifts, guide ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change, and help prioritise future research and monitoring.

DOI for erratum: 10.1111/gcb.13607

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:climate change, trophic cascade, range shifts, temperate reef, qualitative modelling of system feedback, qualitative network models, tropicalisation, management support tool
Research Division:Agricultural, Veterinary and Food Sciences
Research Group:Fisheries sciences
Research Field:Fisheries sciences not elsewhere classified
Objective Division:Animal Production and Animal Primary Products
Objective Group:Fisheries - wild caught
Objective Field:Fisheries - wild caught not elsewhere classified
UTAS Author:Marzloff, MP (Dr Martin Marzloff)
UTAS Author:Melbourne-Thomas, J (Dr Jessica Melbourne-Thomas)
UTAS Author:Hoshino, E (Dr Eriko Hoshino)
UTAS Author:Jennings, S (Dr Sarah Jennings)
UTAS Author:van Putten, IE (Dr Ingrid Van Putten)
UTAS Author:Pecl, GT (Professor Gretta Pecl)
ID Code:108506
Year Published:2016
Web of Science® Times Cited:56
Deposited By:Ecology and Biodiversity
Deposited On:2016-04-20
Last Modified:2018-11-07
Downloads:62 View Download Statistics

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