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A Bayesian inference approach to account for multiple sources of uncertainty in a macroalgae based integrated multi-trophic aquaculture model
Citation
Hadley, S and Jones, E and Johnson, C and Wild-Allen, K and Macleod, C, A Bayesian inference approach to account for multiple sources of uncertainty in a macroalgae based integrated multi-trophic aquaculture model, Environmental Modelling and Software, 78 pp. 120-133. ISSN 1364-8152 (2016) [Refereed Article]
Copyright Statement
Copyright 2016 Elsevier Ltd.
DOI: doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.12.020
Abstract
A Bayesian inference method was employed to quantify uncertainty in an Integrated Multi-Trophic Aquaculture (IMTA) model. A deterministic model was reformulated as a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) with uncertainty in the parameters accounted for using "prior" distributions and unresolved time varying processes modelled using auto-regressive processes. Observations of kelp grown in 3 seeding densities around salmon pens were assimilated using a Sequential Monte Carlo method implemented within the LibBi package. This resulted in a considerable reduction in the variability in model output for both the observed and unobserved state variables. A reduction in variance between the prior and posterior was observed for a subset of model parameters which varied with seeding density. Kullback–Liebler (KL) divergence method showed the reduction in variability of the state and parameters was approximately 90%. A low to medium seeding density results in the most efficient removal of excess nutrients in this simple system.
Item Details
Item Type: | Refereed Article |
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Keywords: | Bayesian inference, macroalgae, IMTA, Sequential Monte Carlo, particle filter, aquaculture |
Research Division: | Biological Sciences |
Research Group: | Ecology |
Research Field: | Marine and estuarine ecology (incl. marine ichthyology) |
Objective Division: | Environmental Management |
Objective Group: | Terrestrial systems and management |
Objective Field: | Assessment and management of terrestrial ecosystems |
UTAS Author: | Hadley, S (Mr Scott Hadley) |
UTAS Author: | Johnson, C (Professor Craig Johnson) |
UTAS Author: | Macleod, C (Professor Catriona MacLeod) |
ID Code: | 108107 |
Year Published: | 2016 |
Web of Science® Times Cited: | 5 |
Deposited By: | Sustainable Marine Research Collaboration |
Deposited On: | 2016-04-06 |
Last Modified: | 2017-11-02 |
Downloads: | 0 |
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