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Prolonged instability prior to a regime shift


Spanbauer, TL and Allen, CR and Angeler, DG and Eason, T and Fritz, SC and Garmestani, AS and Nash, KL and Stone, JR, Prolonged instability prior to a regime shift, PLoS ONE, 9, (10) Article e108936. ISSN 1932-6203 (2014) [Refereed Article]

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Copyright: © 2014 Spanbauer et al. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)

DOI: doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0108936


Regime shifts are generally defined as the point of Ďabruptí change in the state of a system. However, a seemingly abrupt transition can be the product of a system reorganization that has been ongoing much longer than is evident in statistical analysis of a single component of the system. Using both univariate and multivariate statistical methods, we tested a longterm high-resolution paleoecological dataset with a known change in species assemblage for a regime shift. Analysis of this dataset with Fisher Information and multivariate time series modeling showed that there was a 2000 year period of instability prior to the regime shift. This period of instability and the subsequent regime shift coincide with regional climate change, indicating that the system is undergoing extrinsic forcing. Paleoecological records offer a unique opportunity to test tools for the detection of thresholds and stable-states, and thus to examine the long-term stability of ecosystems over periods of multiple millennia.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:lakes, diatoms, paleoecology, ecosystems, paleoclimatology, community structure, freshwater ecology
Research Division:Biological Sciences
Research Group:Ecology
Research Field:Palaeoecology
Objective Division:Environmental Management
Objective Group:Fresh, ground and surface water systems and management
Objective Field:Fresh, ground and surface water biodiversity
UTAS Author:Nash, KL (Dr Kirsty Nash)
ID Code:107690
Year Published:2014
Web of Science® Times Cited:45
Deposited By:IMAS Research and Education Centre
Deposited On:2016-03-22
Last Modified:2017-11-06
Downloads:170 View Download Statistics

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