Marzloff, MP and Barrett, N and Holbrook, N and Oliver, ECJ and James, L and Johnson, CR, Distribution models of temperate habitat-forming species on the continental shelf In eastern Australia: setting the baseline to monitor and predict future changes, Proceedings of the 21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2015), 29 November-04 December 2015, Broadbeach, QLD ISBN 9780987214355 (2015) [Conference Extract]
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Over >1,800 AUV images taken across the 7 different survey regions along the eastern seaboard of Australia, we estimated percentage cover of 51 pre-selected invertebrate morphospecies, including two ascidians, four bryozoans, seven cnidarians and 38 sponges. These morphospecies were chosen for their strong features (i.e. size, shape, colour), which facilitated their identification and detectability on the images. Three levels of details (i.e. group, shape, colour) were reported for each record, so as to test the sensitivity of our results to alternative invertebrate classification schemes of increasing resolution.
Large-scale latitudinal variability between three major community types (sub-tropical, warm temperate and cool temperate) mostly correlates with primary productivity and temperature climatology, while local scale variability relates well with depth.
Using environmental variables that capture past climatology both in terms of means and extremes (frequency and magnitude), we develop alternative distribution models for several habitat-forming species. Our models characterise the thermal tolerance of individual morphospecies in terms of suitable and/or critical boundary conditions. We compare model performance, discriminate between different types of latitudinal distribution (e.g. truncated or continuous), identify indicator morphospecies more likely to respond to climate-driven changes in ocean conditions, and discuss these results in the context of ongoing and future ocean changes. Our study provides an important benchmark to detect and predict future climate-driven changes in southeastern Australia, and our methodology has general applicability for monitoring of deep reef environments.
|Item Type:||Conference Extract|
|Keywords:||Autonomous Underwater Vehicle, effects of climate change on deep reef communities, East Australian Current, benthic invertebrates, range shifts, habitat-formers, habitat mapping, Eastern Australia, temperate reef, deep reef|
|Research Division:||Environmental Sciences|
|Research Group:||Ecological Applications|
|Research Field:||Ecosystem Function|
|Objective Group:||Ecosystem Assessment and Management|
|Objective Field:||Ecosystem Assessment and Management of Marine Environments|
|UTAS Author:||Marzloff, MP (Dr Martin Marzloff)|
|UTAS Author:||Barrett, N (Associate Professor Neville Barrett)|
|UTAS Author:||Holbrook, N (Professor Neil Holbrook)|
|UTAS Author:||Oliver, ECJ (Dr Eric Oliver)|
|UTAS Author:||James, L (Ms Lainey James)|
|UTAS Author:||Johnson, CR (Professor Craig Johnson)|
|Deposited By:||IMAS Research and Education Centre|
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