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Timing and severity of immunizing diseases in rabbits is controlled by seasonal matching of host and pathogen dynamics

journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-18, 17:39 authored by Wells, K, Barry BrookBarry Brook, Lacy, RC, Mutze, GJ, Peacock, DE, Sinclair, RG, Schwensow, N, Cassey, P, O'Hara, RB, Fordham, DA
Infectious diseases can exert a strong influence on the dynamics of host populations, but it remains unclear why such disease-mediated control only occurs under particular environmental conditions. We used 16 years of detailed field data on invasive European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in Australia, linked to individual-based stochastic models and Bayesian approximations, to test whether (i) mortality associated with rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) is driven primarily by seasonal matches/mismatches between demographic rates and epidemiological dynamics and (ii) delayed infection (arising from insusceptibility and maternal antibodies in juveniles) are important factors in determining disease severity and local population persistence of rabbits. We found that both the timing of reproduction and exposure to viruses drove recurrent seasonal epidemics of RHD. Protection conferred by insusceptibility and maternal antibodies controlled seasonal disease outbreaks by delaying infection; this could have also allowed escape from disease. The persistence of local populations was a stochastic outcome of recovery rates from both RHD and myxomatosis. If susceptibility to RHD is delayed, myxomatosis will have a pronounced effect on population extirpation when the two viruses coexist. This has important implications for wildlife management, because it is likely that such seasonal interplay and disease dynamics has a strong effect on long-term population viability for many species.

History

Publication title

Journal of the Royal Society. Interface

Volume

12

Issue

103

Article number

20141184

Number

20141184

Pagination

1-11

ISSN

1742-5689

Department/School

School of Natural Sciences

Publisher

The Royal Society Publishing

Place of publication

United Kingdom

Rights statement

Copyright 2015 The Author(s)

Repository Status

  • Restricted

Socio-economic Objectives

Control of pests, diseases and exotic species in terrestrial environments

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