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Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming
Citation
Risbey, JS and Lewandowsky, S and Hunter, JR and Monselesan, DP, Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 373, (2055) Article 20140463. ISSN 1364-503X (2015) [Refereed Article]
Copyright Statement
© 2015 The Author(s)
DOI: doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0463
Abstract
We examine a series of betting strategies on the transient response of greenhouse warming, expressed by changes in 15-year mean global surface temperature from one 15-year period to the next. Over the last century, these bets are increasingly dominated by positive changes (warming), reflecting increasing greenhouse forcing and its rising contribution to temperature changes on this time scale. The greenhouse contribution to 15-year trends is now of a similar magnitude to typical naturally occurring 15-year trends. Negative 15-year changes (decreases) have not occurred since about 1970, and are still possible, but now rely on large, and therefore infrequent, natural variations. Model projections for even intermediate warming scenarios show very low likelihoods of obtaining negative 15-year changes over the coming century. Betting against greenhouse warming, even on these short time scales, is no longer a rational proposition.
Item Details
Item Type: | Refereed Article |
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Keywords: | climate futures, decadal trends, transient response |
Research Division: | Earth Sciences |
Research Group: | Climate change science |
Research Field: | Climate change processes |
Objective Division: | Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards |
Objective Group: | Understanding climate change |
Objective Field: | Climate change models |
UTAS Author: | Hunter, JR (Dr John Hunter) |
ID Code: | 106816 |
Year Published: | 2015 |
Web of Science® Times Cited: | 6 |
Deposited By: | IMAS Research and Education Centre |
Deposited On: | 2016-02-22 |
Last Modified: | 2018-03-29 |
Downloads: | 0 |
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