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Modelling marine protected areas: insights and hurdles


Fulton, EA and Bax, NJ and Bustamante, RH and Dambacher, JM and Dichmont, C and Dunstan, PK and Hayes, KR and Hobday, AJ and Pitcher, R and Plaganyi, EE and Punt, AE and Savina-Rolland, M and Smith, AD and Smith, DC, Modelling marine protected areas: insights and hurdles, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 370, (1681) Article 20140278. ISSN 0962-8436 (2015) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

Copyright 2015 The Author(s)

DOI: doi:10.1098/rstb.2014.0278


Models provide useful insights into conservation and resource management issues and solutions. Their use to date has highlighted conditions under which no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) may help us to achieve the goals of ecosystem-based management by reducing pressures, and where they might fail to achieve desired goals. For example, static reserve designs are unlikely to achieve desired objectives when applied to mobile species or when compromised by climate-related ecosystem restructuring and range shifts. Modelling tools allow planners to explore a range of options, such as basing MPAs on the presence of dynamic oceanic features, and to evaluate the potential future impacts of alternative interventions compared with ‘no-action’ counterfactuals, under a range of environmental and development scenarios. The modelling environment allows the analyst to test if indicators and management strategies are robust to uncertainties in how the ecosystem (and the broader human–ecosystem combination) operates, including the direct and indirect ecological effects of protection. Moreover, modelling results can be presented at multiple spatial and temporal scales, and relative to ecological, economic and social objectives. This helps to reveal potential ‘surprises', such as regime shifts, trophic cascades and bottlenecks in human responses. Using illustrative examples, this paper briefly covers the history of the use of simulation models for evaluating MPA options, and discusses their utility and limitations for informing protected area management in the marine realm.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:spatial management, modelling, MPA, counterfactual
Research Division:Earth Sciences
Research Group:Oceanography
Research Field:Oceanography not elsewhere classified
Objective Division:Expanding Knowledge
Objective Group:Expanding knowledge
Objective Field:Expanding knowledge in the environmental sciences
UTAS Author:Fulton, EA (Dr Elizabeth Fulton)
UTAS Author:Bax, NJ (Professor Nicholas Bax)
UTAS Author:Dambacher, JM (Dr Jeffrey Dambacher)
UTAS Author:Hobday, AJ (Dr Alistair Hobday)
ID Code:106337
Year Published:2015
Web of Science® Times Cited:61
Deposited By:IMAS Research and Education Centre
Deposited On:2016-02-05
Last Modified:2017-11-01

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