Background and aim: To determine predictors of short- and long-term outcomes in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (AECOPD) presenting to hospital.

Methods: A prospective clinical audit of AECOPD attendances to the only public acute general hospital in Southern Tasmania, Australia. Out of 416 attendances with AECOPD to the emergency department (ED) between November 2006 and July 2008, 150 patients with 218 attendances were followed to March 2009. Predictors of hospital admission from ED, in-hospital death, length of hospital stay, post-discharge mortality and re-attendance rate for AECOPD were the main outcomes.

Results: There were no clear differences between patients admitted to hospital and those sent home from ED. Predictors of in-hospital death were initial physiologic parameters, that is, arterial pH, PaCO₂, oxygen saturation and blood pressure. Longer hospital stay was associated with older age, current smoking, hyperglycaemia, lower blood pressure and lower oxygen saturation. Risk of mortality after discharge was associated with a history of myocardial infarction, nursing home residence and severity of COPD. Re-attendance rate was associated with osteoporosis, younger age and severity of COPD.

Conclusions: Further investigation into the process of decision making about which AECOPD patients are admitted from the ED is required. Short-term outcomes, in-hospital death and length of hospital stay are mainly predicted by severity of the acute exacerbation and patient demographics. Although severity of COPD was a predictor of long-term outcomes, the main predictors of these were presence of co-morbidities.