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Reducing uncertainty in the climatic interpretations of speleothem d18O

Citation

Jex, CN and Phipps, SJ and Baker, A and Bradley, C, Reducing uncertainty in the climatic interpretations of speleothem d18O, Geophysical Research Letters, 40 pp. 2259-2264. ISSN 0094-8276 (2013) [Refereed Article]


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Copyright Statement

Copyright 2013 American Geophysical Union

DOI: doi:10.1002/grl.50467

Abstract

We explore two principal areas of uncertainty associated with paleoclimate reconstructions from speleothem δ18O (δ18Ospel): potential non-stationarity in relationships between local climate and larger-scale atmospheric circulation, and routing of water through the karst aquifer. Using a δ18Ospel record from Turkey, the CSIRO Mk3L climate system model and the KarstFOR karst hydrology model, we confirm the stationarity of relationships between cool season precipitation and regional circulation dynamics associated with the North Sea-Caspian pattern since 1 ka. Stalagmite δ18O is predicted for the last 500 years, using precipitation and temperature output from the CSIRO Mk3L model and synthetic δ18O of precipitation as inputs for the KarstFOR model. Interannual variability in the δ18Ospel record is captured by KarstFOR, but we cannot reproduce the isotopically lighter conditions of the sixteenth to seventeenth centuries. We argue that forward models of paleoclimate proxies (such as KarstFOR) embedded within isotope-enabled general circulation models are now required.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:climate models, forward models, palaeoclimate, speleothems, isotopes, hydroclimate, Turkey
Research Division:Earth Sciences
Research Group:Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience
Research Field:Palaeoclimatology
Objective Division:Environment
Objective Group:Climate and Climate Change
Objective Field:Climate Change Models
Author:Phipps, SJ (Dr Steven Phipps)
ID Code:104721
Year Published:2013
Web of Science® Times Cited:7
Deposited By:IMAS Research and Education Centre
Deposited On:2015-11-18
Last Modified:2017-10-30
Downloads:80 View Download Statistics

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