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Building systems-based scenario narratives for novel biodiversity futures in an agricultural landscape


Mitchell, M and Lockwood, M and Moore, SA and Clement, S, Building systems-based scenario narratives for novel biodiversity futures in an agricultural landscape, Landscape and Urban Planning, 145 pp. 45-56. ISSN 0169-2046 (2016) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

Copyright 2015 Elsevier B.V.

DOI: doi:10.1016/j.landurbplan.2015.09.003


Improving biodiversity futures requires a systems-based appreciation of the dynamic human and biophysical interactions shaping landscapes. By combining a structured approach to identifying key drivers of change on biodiversity with a collaborative approach to scenario planning, biodiversity planners and managers can work with stakeholders to identify a range of possible futures and explore their implications. This paper presents an approach to developing scenario narratives constructed against key drivers of change identified through a social–ecological systems analysis. The approach facilitated the integration of stakeholder and expert input to inform system dynamics affecting biodiversity outcomes, helping to direct and discipline the collective imagination, and to challenge assumptions and reveal new opportunities and strategies. Examples are provided to show how conventional notions about preserving biodiversity remnants "as is" were not a good fit for the diverse range of futures imagined, and that restoration ecology would have to expand to incorporate ideas of landscape fluidity and novel ecosystems. Aspects of the scenario narratives highlighted the need for new conservation strategies for the endangered native grassland ecological community within the Tasmanian Midlands case study, and a re-focusing on new locations across that landscape.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:scenario planning, land use change, private land conservation, biodiversity futures, novel ecosystems
Research Division:Environmental Sciences
Research Group:Environmental management
Research Field:Conservation and biodiversity
Objective Division:Environmental Management
Objective Group:Terrestrial systems and management
Objective Field:Rehabilitation or conservation of terrestrial environments
UTAS Author:Mitchell, M (Dr Michael Mitchell)
UTAS Author:Lockwood, M (Associate Professor Michael Lockwood)
ID Code:103699
Year Published:2016
Web of Science® Times Cited:9
Deposited By:Geography and Spatial Science
Deposited On:2015-10-26
Last Modified:2017-10-31

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