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Risk analysis of deepwater drilling operations using Bayesian network
Citation
Bhandari, J and Abbassi, R and Garaniya, V and Khan, F, Risk analysis of deepwater drilling operations using Bayesian network, Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries, 38 pp. 11-23. ISSN 0950-4230 (2015) [Refereed Article]
Copyright Statement
Copyright 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
DOI: doi:10.1016/j.jlp.2015.08.004
Abstract
Deepwater drilling is one of the high-risk operations in the oil and gas sector due to large uncertainties
and extreme operating conditions. In the last few decades Managed Pressure Drilling Operations (MPD)
and Underbalanced Drilling (UBD) have become increasingly used as alternatives to conventional drilling
operations such as Overbalanced Drilling (OVD) technology. These newer techniques provide several
advantages however the blowout risk during these operations is still not fully understood. Blowout is
regarded as one of the most catastrophic events in offshore drilling operations; therefore implementation
and maintenance of safety measures is essential to maintain risk below the acceptance criteria. This
study is aimed at applying the Bayesian Network (BN) to conduct a dynamic safety analysis of deepwater
MPD and UBD operations. It investigates different risk factors associated with MPD and UBD technologies,
which could lead to a blowout accident. Blowout accident scenarios are investigated and the BNs are
developed for MPD and UBD technologies in order to predict the probability of blowout occurrence. The
main objective of this paper is to understand MPD and UBD technologies, to identify hazardous events
during MPD and UBD operations, to perform failure analysis (modelling) of blowout events and to
evaluate plus compare risk. Importance factor analysis in drilling operations is performed to assess
contribution of each root cause to the potential accident; the results show that UBD has a higher
occurrence probability of kick and blowout compared to MPD technology. The Rotating Control Devices
(RCD) failure in MPD technology and increase in flow-through annulus in UBD technology are the most
critical situations for kick and blowout.
Item Details
Item Type: | Refereed Article |
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Keywords: | Offshore Oil and Gas, Drilling, Probabilistic Modelling, Bayesian Network |
Research Division: | Engineering |
Research Group: | Maritime engineering |
Research Field: | Maritime engineering not elsewhere classified |
Objective Division: | Energy |
Objective Group: | Energy exploration |
Objective Field: | Coal exploration |
UTAS Author: | Bhandari, J (Mr Jyoti Bhandari) |
UTAS Author: | Abbassi, R (Dr Rouzbeh Abbassi) |
UTAS Author: | Garaniya, V (Associate Professor Vikram Garaniya) |
UTAS Author: | Khan, F (Professor Faisal Khan) |
ID Code: | 102663 |
Year Published: | 2015 |
Web of Science® Times Cited: | 124 |
Deposited By: | NC Maritime Engineering and Hydrodynamics |
Deposited On: | 2015-09-03 |
Last Modified: | 2017-11-03 |
Downloads: | 0 |
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