The Development of Chance Measurement

This paper presents an analysis of three questionnaire items which explore students' understanding of chance measurement in relation to the development of ideas of formal probability. The items were administered to 1014 students in Grades 3, 6 and 9 in Tasmanian schools. The analysis, using the NUD·IST text analysis software, was based on the multimodal functioning SOLO model. An analysis of the results and a developmental model for understanding chance measurement are presented, along with implications for curriculum and teaching practice.