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Testing the role of climate change in species decline: is the eastern quoll a victim of a change in the weather?
Citation
Fancourt, BA and Bateman, BL and VanDerWal, J and Nicol, SC and Hawkins, CE and Jones, ME and Johnson, CN, Testing the role of climate change in species decline: is the eastern quoll a victim of a change in the weather?, PLoS ONE, 10, (6) Article e0129420. ISSN 1932-6203 (2015) [Refereed Article]
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Copyright Statement
© 2015 Fancourt et al. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
DOI: doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0129420
Abstract
To conserve a declining species we first need to diagnose the causes of decline. This is one
of the most challenging tasks faced by conservation practitioners. In this study, we used
temporally explicit species distribution models (SDMs) to test whether shifting weather can
explain the recent decline of a marsupial carnivore, the eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus).
We developed an SDM using weather variables matched to occurrence records of the eastern
quoll over the last 60 years, and used the model to reconstruct variation through time in
the distribution of climatically suitable range for the species. The weather model produced a
meaningful prediction of the known distribution of the species. Abundance of quolls, indexed
by transect counts, was positively related to the modelled area of suitable habitat between
1990 and 2004. In particular, a sharp decline in abundance from 2001 to 2003
coincided with a sustained period of unsuitable weather over much of the species’ distribution.
Since 2004, abundance has not recovered despite a return to suitable weather conditions,
and abundance and area of suitable habitat have been uncorrelated. We suggest that
fluctuations in weather account for the species’ recent decline, but other unrelated factors
have suppressed recovery.
Item Details
| Item Type: | Refereed Article |
|---|---|
| Keywords: | threatened species |
| Research Division: | Biological Sciences |
| Research Group: | Ecology |
| Research Field: | Terrestrial ecology |
| Objective Division: | Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards |
| Objective Group: | Understanding climate change |
| Objective Field: | Climate variability (excl. social impacts) |
| UTAS Author: | Fancourt, BA (Miss Bronwyn Fancourt) |
| UTAS Author: | Nicol, SC (Associate Professor Stewart Nicol) |
| UTAS Author: | Hawkins, CE (Dr Clare Hawkins) |
| UTAS Author: | Jones, ME (Professor Menna Jones) |
| UTAS Author: | Johnson, CN (Professor Christopher Johnson) |
| ID Code: | 102546 |
| Year Published: | 2015 |
| Web of Science® Times Cited: | 19 |
| Deposited By: | Zoology |
| Deposited On: | 2015-08-27 |
| Last Modified: | 2018-03-17 |
| Downloads: | 315 View Download Statistics |
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