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Using the latest paleoclimate insights to better quantify the risk of low probability, high impact floods and hydrological droughts – how robust are existing water resource management and supply systems in eastern Australia?
Citation
Kiem, A and Vance, TR and Roberts, J and Ho, M, Using the latest paleoclimate insights to better quantify the risk of low probability, high impact floods and hydrological droughts - how robust are existing water resource management and supply systems in eastern Australia?, European Geophysical Union Conference 2015, 12-17 April 2015, Vienna, Austria (2015) [Conference Extract]
Abstract
Floods and droughts always have and always will occur. Both natural climate variability and anthropogenic change
influence flood and drought risk but their exact roles, and proportional importance, are not yet properly understood
or quantified. To address these challenges, and to move towards a more resilient, well adapted world, a paradigm
shift is required that accepts and accounts for the non-linear and non-stationary nature of the processes that drive
hydroclimatic risk. This study focuses on recent research from Australia that utilizes several independently derived
paleoclimate reconstructions to better understand interannual to multidecadal climate variability and to provide
improved quantification of the true risk of low probability, high impact floods and hydrological droughts in the
heavily populated eastern Australian region. It is demonstrated that the instrumental hydroclimatic records (which
cover only 100 years at best for most parts of Australia) do not capture the full range of flooding and drought that is
possible. Also discussed are the implications for water resources management of the realisation that hydroclimatic
risk changes over time and that fundamental questions of whether flood and drought risk in Australia will increase
or decrease in the future (and where and when and by how much) are as yet unanswered, and how decision makers
can robustly deal with such uncertainty.
Item Details
Item Type: | Conference Extract |
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Research Division: | Earth Sciences |
Research Group: | Physical geography and environmental geoscience |
Research Field: | Palaeoclimatology |
Objective Division: | Expanding Knowledge |
Objective Group: | Expanding knowledge |
Objective Field: | Expanding knowledge in the earth sciences |
UTAS Author: | Vance, TR (Dr Tessa Vance) |
UTAS Author: | Roberts, J (Dr Jason Roberts) |
ID Code: | 101719 |
Year Published: | 2015 |
Deposited By: | CRC-Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems |
Deposited On: | 2015-07-02 |
Last Modified: | 2015-07-02 |
Downloads: | 0 |
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