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Using subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) extreme rainfall forecasts for extended-range flood prediction in Australia

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journal contribution
posted on 2023-05-18, 11:00 authored by Christopher White, Franks, SW, McEvoy, D
Meteorological and hydrological centres around the world are looking at ways to improve their capacity to be able to produce and deliver skilful and reliable forecasts of high-impact extreme rainfall and flooding events on a range of prediction timescales (e.g. sub-daily, daily, multi-week, seasonal). Making improvements to extended-range rainfall and flood forecast models, assessing forecast skill and uncertainty, and exploring how to apply flood forecasts and communicate their benefits to decision-makers are significant challenges facing the forecasting and water resources management communities. This paper presents some of the latest science and initiatives from Australia on the development, application and communication of extreme rainfall and flood forecasts on the extended-range “subseasonal-to-seasonal” (S2S) forecasting timescale, with a focus on risk-based decision-making, increasing flood risk awareness and preparedness, capturing uncertainty, understanding human responses to flood forecasts and warnings, and the growing adoption of “climate services”. The paper also demonstrates how forecasts of flood events across a range of prediction timescales could be beneficial to a range of sectors and society, most notably for disaster risk reduction (DRR) activities, emergency management and response, and strengthening community resilience. Extended-range S2S extreme flood forecasts, if presented as easily accessible, timely and relevant information are a valuable resource to help society better prepare for, and subsequently cope with, extreme flood events.

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University of Tasmania

History

Publication title

IAHS Proceedings and Reports

Volume

370

Pagination

229-234

ISSN

0144-7815

Department/School

School of Engineering

Publisher

IAHS Press

Place of publication

United Kingdom

Rights statement

Copyright 2015 The Authors Licenced under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

Repository Status

  • Open

Socio-economic Objectives

Natural hazards not elsewhere classified

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