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Using subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) extreme rainfall forecasts for extended-range flood prediction in Australia
Citation
White, CJ and Franks, SW and McEvoy, D, Using subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) extreme rainfall forecasts for extended-range flood prediction in Australia, IAHS Proceedings and Reports, 370 pp. 229-234. ISSN 0144-7815 (2015) [Refereed Article]
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Copyright Statement
Copyright 2015 The Authors Licenced under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
DOI: doi:10.5194/piahs-370-229-2015
Abstract
Meteorological and hydrological centres around the world are looking at ways to improve their capacity
to be able to produce and deliver skilful and reliable forecasts of high-impact extreme rainfall and flooding
events on a range of prediction timescales (e.g. sub-daily, daily, multi-week, seasonal). Making improvements
to extended-range rainfall and flood forecast models, assessing forecast skill and uncertainty, and exploring how
to apply flood forecasts and communicate their benefits to decision-makers are significant challenges facing the
forecasting and water resources management communities. This paper presents some of the latest science and
initiatives from Australia on the development, application and communication of extreme rainfall and flood forecasts
on the extended-range "subseasonal-to-seasonal" (S2S) forecasting timescale, with a focus on risk-based
decision-making, increasing flood risk awareness and preparedness, capturing uncertainty, understanding human
responses to flood forecasts and warnings, and the growing adoption of "climate services". The paper also
demonstrates how forecasts of flood events across a range of prediction timescales could be beneficial to a range
of sectors and society, most notably for disaster risk reduction (DRR) activities, emergency management and
response, and strengthening community resilience. Extended-range S2S extreme flood forecasts, if presented as
easily accessible, timely and relevant information are a valuable resource to help society better prepare for, and
subsequently cope with, extreme flood events.
Item Details
| Item Type: | Refereed Article |
|---|---|
| Keywords: | subseasonal-to-seasonal, S2S, forecasting, extreme rainfall, flood, Australia |
| Research Division: | Earth Sciences |
| Research Group: | Atmospheric Sciences |
| Research Field: | Meteorology |
| Objective Division: | Environment |
| Objective Group: | Natural Hazards |
| Objective Field: | Natural Hazards in Fresh, Ground and Surface Water Environments |
| UTAS Author: | White, CJ (Dr Chris White) |
| UTAS Author: | Franks, SW (Professor Stewart Franks) |
| ID Code: | 101230 |
| Year Published: | 2015 |
| Web of Science® Times Cited: | 10 |
| Deposited By: | Engineering |
| Deposited On: | 2015-06-12 |
| Last Modified: | 2016-02-26 |
| Downloads: | 242 View Download Statistics |
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