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Using subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) extreme rainfall forecasts for extended-range flood prediction in Australia

Citation

White, CJ and Franks, SW and McEvoy, D, Using subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) extreme rainfall forecasts for extended-range flood prediction in Australia, IAHS Proceedings and Reports, 370 pp. 229-234. ISSN 0144-7815 (2015) [Refereed Article]


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Copyright Statement

Copyright 2015 The Authors Licenced under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

DOI: doi:10.5194/piahs-370-229-2015

Abstract

Meteorological and hydrological centres around the world are looking at ways to improve their capacity to be able to produce and deliver skilful and reliable forecasts of high-impact extreme rainfall and flooding events on a range of prediction timescales (e.g. sub-daily, daily, multi-week, seasonal). Making improvements to extended-range rainfall and flood forecast models, assessing forecast skill and uncertainty, and exploring how to apply flood forecasts and communicate their benefits to decision-makers are significant challenges facing the forecasting and water resources management communities. This paper presents some of the latest science and initiatives from Australia on the development, application and communication of extreme rainfall and flood forecasts on the extended-range "subseasonal-to-seasonal" (S2S) forecasting timescale, with a focus on risk-based decision-making, increasing flood risk awareness and preparedness, capturing uncertainty, understanding human responses to flood forecasts and warnings, and the growing adoption of "climate services". The paper also demonstrates how forecasts of flood events across a range of prediction timescales could be beneficial to a range of sectors and society, most notably for disaster risk reduction (DRR) activities, emergency management and response, and strengthening community resilience. Extended-range S2S extreme flood forecasts, if presented as easily accessible, timely and relevant information are a valuable resource to help society better prepare for, and subsequently cope with, extreme flood events.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:subseasonal-to-seasonal, S2S, forecasting, extreme rainfall, flood, Australia
Research Division:Earth Sciences
Research Group:Atmospheric Sciences
Research Field:Meteorology
Objective Division:Environment
Objective Group:Natural Hazards
Objective Field:Natural Hazards in Fresh, Ground and Surface Water Environments
Author:White, CJ (Dr Chris White)
Author:Franks, SW (Professor Stewart Franks)
ID Code:101230
Year Published:2015
Web of Science® Times Cited:4
Deposited By:Engineering
Deposited On:2015-06-12
Last Modified:2016-02-26
Downloads:160 View Download Statistics

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