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Predicting the impacts and socio-economic consequences of climate change on global marine ecosystems and fisheries - the QUEST_Fish Framework

Citation

Barange, M and Allen, I and Allison, E and Badjeck, M-C and Blanchard, J and Drakeford, B and Dulvey, NK and Harle, J and Holmes, R and Holt, J and Jennings, S and Lowe, J and Merino, G and Mullon, C and Pilling, G and Rodwell, L and Thompkins, E and Werner, F, Predicting the impacts and socio-economic consequences of climate change on global marine ecosystems and fisheries - the QUEST_Fish Framework, World Fisheries: A Social-Ecological Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., RE Ommer, RI Perry, K Cochrane, P Cury (ed), United States, pp. 29-59. ISBN 9781444334678 (2011) [Research Book Chapter]

Copyright Statement

Copyright 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

DOI: doi:10.1002/9781444392241.ch3

Abstract

Climate change is accelerating and is already affecting the marine environment. Estimating the effects of climate change on the production of fish resources, and their dependent societies, is complex because of: difficulties of downscaling Global Climate Models (GCM) to scales of biological relevance; uncertainties over future net primary production and its transfer through the food chain; difficulties in separating the multiple stressors affecting fish production; and inadequate methodology to estimate human vulnerabilities to these changes. QUEST_Fish, a research project led from the UK, is addressing some of these challenges through an innovative, multi-disciplinary approach focused on estimating the added impacts that climate change is likely to cause, and the subsequent additional risks and vulnerabilities of these effects for human societies. The project uses coupled shelf seas biophysical ecosystem models forced by GCM forecasts to predict ecosystem functioning in past, present, and future time-slices. For each slice, and for 20 Large Marine Ecosystems, we estimate plankton production and use this to estimate size-based fish production through models based on macro-ecological theory. Ways of assessing vulnerability of fisheries to future climate change are developed, including the market consequences for fish-based global commodities. The results provide a new framework and new insights into the complex interactions between humans and nature

Item Details

Item Type:Research Book Chapter
Keywords:climate change impacts on fish and fisheries
Research Division:Biological Sciences
Research Group:Other Biological Sciences
Research Field:Global Change Biology
Objective Division:Environment
Objective Group:Climate and Climate Change
Objective Field:Ecosystem Adaptation to Climate Change
Author:Blanchard, J (Dr Julia Blanchard)
ID Code:100496
Year Published:2011
Deposited By:Sustainable Marine Research Collaboration
Deposited On:2015-05-18
Last Modified:2015-06-03
Downloads:0

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