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Potential consequences of climate change for primary production and fish production in large marine ecosystems
Citation
Blanchard, JL and Jennings, S and Holmes, R and Harle, J and Merino, G and Allen, JI and Holt, J and Dulvey, NK and Barange, M, Potential consequences of climate change for primary production and fish production in large marine ecosystems, Royal Society of London. Philosophical Transactions. Biological Sciences, 367 pp. 2979-2989. ISSN 0962-8436 (2012) [Refereed Article]
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Copyright Statement
Copyright 2012 The Royal Society
DOI: doi:10.1098/rstb.2012.0231
Abstract
Existing methods to predict the effects of climate change on the biomass and production of marine
communities are predicated on modelling the interactions and dynamics of individual species, a
very challenging approach when interactions and distributions are changing and little is known
about the ecological mechanisms driving the responses of many species. An informative parallel
approach is to develop size-based methods. These capture the properties of food webs that describe
energy flux and production at a particular size, independent of species’ ecology. We couple a
physical–biogeochemical model with a dynamic, size-based food web model to predict the future
effects of climate change on fish biomass and production in 11 large regional shelf seas, with and without
fishing effects. Changes in potential fish production are shown to most strongly mirror changes in
phytoplankton production. We project declines of 30–60% in potential fish production across some
important areas of tropical shelf and upwelling seas, most notably in the eastern Indo-Pacific, the
northern Humboldt and the North Canary Current. Conversely, in some areas of the high latitude
shelf seas, the production of pelagic predators was projected to increase by 28–89%.
Item Details
Item Type: | Refereed Article |
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Keywords: | climate change, fisheries, marine ecosystems |
Research Division: | Biological Sciences |
Research Group: | Other biological sciences |
Research Field: | Global change biology |
Objective Division: | Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards |
Objective Group: | Understanding climate change |
Objective Field: | Global effects of climate change (excl. Australia, New Zealand, Antarctica and the South Pacific) (excl. social impacts) |
UTAS Author: | Blanchard, JL (Professor Julia Blanchard) |
ID Code: | 100485 |
Year Published: | 2012 |
Web of Science® Times Cited: | 249 |
Deposited By: | Sustainable Marine Research Collaboration |
Deposited On: | 2015-05-18 |
Last Modified: | 2017-11-06 |
Downloads: | 0 |
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