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Dynamic prediction of effort reallocation in mixed fisheries
Citation
Tidd, AN and Hutton, T and Kell, LT and Blanchard, JL, Dynamic prediction of effort reallocation in mixed fisheries, Fisheries Research, 125-126 pp. 243-253. ISSN 0165-7836 (2012) [Refereed Article]
Copyright Statement
Crown Copyright 2012
DOI: doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2012.03.004
Abstract
A discrete choice model is applied to determine how fishing effort is allocated spatially and temporally by
the English and Welsh North Sea beam trawl fleet. Individual vessels can fish in five distinct areas, and the
utility of fishing in an area depends on expected revenue measured as previous success (value per unit
effort) and experience (past fishing effort allocation), as well as perceived costs (measured as distance
to landing port weighted by fuel price). The model predicts fisher location choice, and the predictions
are evaluated using iterative partial cross validation by fitting the model over a series of separate time-periods
(nine separate time-periods). Results show the relative importance of the different drivers that
change over time. They indicate that there are three main drivers throughout the study, past annual
effort, past monthly effort in the year of fishing, and fuel price, largely reflecting the fact that previous
practices where success was gained are learned (i.e. experience) and become habitual, and that seasonal
variations also dominate behaviour in terms of the strong monthly trends and variable costs. In order
to provide an indication of the model’s predictive capabilities, a simulated closure of one of the study
areas was undertaken (an area that mapped reasonably well with the North Sea cod 2001 partial closure
of the North Sea for 10 weeks of that year). The predicted reallocation of effort was compared against
realized/observed reallocation of effort, and there was good correlation at the trip level, with a maximum
10% misallocation of predicted effort for that year.
Item Details
Item Type: | Refereed Article |
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Keywords: | fisher behaviour, fleet dynamics |
Research Division: | Agricultural, Veterinary and Food Sciences |
Research Group: | Fisheries sciences |
Research Field: | Fisheries management |
Objective Division: | Environmental Management |
Objective Group: | Management of Antarctic and Southern Ocean environments |
Objective Field: | Assessment and management of Antarctic and Southern Ocean ecosystems |
UTAS Author: | Tidd, AN (Dr Alexander Tidd) |
UTAS Author: | Blanchard, JL (Professor Julia Blanchard) |
ID Code: | 100483 |
Year Published: | 2012 |
Web of Science® Times Cited: | 19 |
Deposited By: | Sustainable Marine Research Collaboration |
Deposited On: | 2015-05-18 |
Last Modified: | 2017-11-04 |
Downloads: | 0 |
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