Growing human populations and changing dietary preferences are increasing global demands for fish¹, adding pressure to concerns over fisheries sustainability². Here we develop and link models of physical, biological and human responses to climate change in 67 marine national exclusive economic zones, which yield approximately 60% of global fish catches, to project climate change yield impacts in countries with different dependencies on marine fisheries³. Predicted changes in fish production indicate increased productivity at high latitudes and decreased productivity at low/mid latitudes, with considerable regional variations. With few exceptions, increases and decreases in fish production potential by 2050 are estimated to be <10% (mean +3.4%) from present yields. Among the nations showing a high dependency on fisheries³, climate change is predicted to increase productive potential in West Africa and decrease it in South and Southeast Asia. Despite projected human population increases and assuming that per capita fish consumption rates will be maintained¹, ongoing technological development in the aquaculture industry suggests that projected global fish demands in 2050 could be met, thus challenging existing predictions of inevitable shortfalls in fish supply by the mid-twenty-first century⁴. This conclusion, however, is contingent on successful implementation of strategies for sustainable harvesting and effective distribution of wild fish products from nations and regions with a surplus to those with a deficit. Changes in management effectiveness² and trade practices⁵ will remain the main influence on realized gains or losses in global fish production.

Item Type:	Refereed Article
Keywords:	climate change, fisheries
Research Division:	Biological Sciences
Research Group:	Other biological sciences
Research Field:	Global change biology
Objective Division:	Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards
Objective Group:	Understanding climate change
Objective Field:	Climate change models
UTAS Author:	Blanchard, JL (Dr Julia Blanchard)
ID Code:	100472
Year Published:	2014
Web of Science® Times Cited:	229
Deposited By:	Sustainable Marine Research Collaboration
Deposited On:	2015-05-18
Last Modified:	2017-11-06
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