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Future fish distributions constrained by depth in warming seas
Citation
Rutterford, LA and Simpson, SD and Jennings, S and Johnson, MP and Blanchard, JL and Schon, P-J and Sims, DW and Tinker, J and Genner, MJ, Future fish distributions constrained by depth in warming seas, Nature Climate Change, 5, (6) pp. 569-573. ISSN 1758-678X (2015) [Refereed Article]
Copyright Statement
Copyright 2015 Macmillan
Abstract
European continental shelf seas have experienced intense warming over the past 30 years. In the North Sea, fish have been comprehensively monitored throughout this period and resulting data provide a unique record of changes in distribution and abundance in response to climate change. We use these data to demonstrate the remarkable power of generalized additive models (GAMs), trained on data earlier in the time series, to reliably predict trends in distribution and abundance in later years. Then, challenging process-based models that predict substantial and ongoing poleward shifts of cold-water species, we find that GAMs coupled with climate projections predict future distributions of demersal (bottom-dwelling) fish species over the next 50 years will be strongly constrained by availability of habitat of suitable depth. This will lead to pronounced changes in community structure, species interactions and commercial fisheries, unless individual acclimation or population-level evolutionary adaptations enable fish to tolerate warmer conditions or move to previously uninhabitable locations.
Item Details
Item Type: | Refereed Article |
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Keywords: | climate change, fish distributions, ecological modelling |
Research Division: | Environmental Sciences |
Research Group: | Climate change impacts and adaptation |
Research Field: | Ecological impacts of climate change and ecological adaptation |
Objective Division: | Environmental Policy, Climate Change and Natural Hazards |
Objective Group: | Adaptation to climate change |
Objective Field: | Ecosystem adaptation to climate change |
UTAS Author: | Blanchard, JL (Professor Julia Blanchard) |
ID Code: | 100463 |
Year Published: | 2015 |
Web of Science® Times Cited: | 65 |
Deposited By: | Sustainable Marine Research Collaboration |
Deposited On: | 2015-05-18 |
Last Modified: | 2017-10-31 |
Downloads: | 0 |
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