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Two takes on the ecosystem impacts of climate change and fishing: comparing a size-based and a species-based ecosystem model in the central North Pacific

Citation

Woodworth-Jefcoats, PA and Polovina, JJ and Howell, EA and Blanchard, JL, Two takes on the ecosystem impacts of climate change and fishing: comparing a size-based and a species-based ecosystem model in the central North Pacific, Progress in Oceanography, 138, (Part B) pp. 533-545. ISSN 0079-6611 (2015) [Refereed Article]

Copyright Statement

Copyright 2015 Elsevier Ltd.

DOI: doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2015.04.004

Abstract

We compare two ecosystem model projections of 21st century climate change and fishing impacts in the central North Pacific. Both a species-based and a size-based ecosystem modeling approach are examined. While both models project a decline in biomass across all sizes in response to climate change and a decline in large fish biomass in response to increased fishing mortality, the models vary significantly in their handling of climate and fishing scenarios. For example, based on the same climate forcing the species-based model projects a 15% decline in catch by the end of the century while the size-based model projects a 30% decline. Disparities in the modelsí output highlight the limitations of each approach by showing the influence model structure can have on model output. The aspects of bottom-up change to which each model is most sensitive appear linked to model structure, as does the propagation of inter-annual variability through the food web and the relative impact of combined top-down and bottom-up change. Incorporating integrated size- and species-based ecosystem modeling approaches into future ensemble studies may help separate the influence of model structure from robust projections of ecosystem change.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:climate change, fishing, marine ecosystems
Research Division:Environmental Sciences
Research Group:Ecological Applications
Research Field:Ecological Impacts of Climate Change
Objective Division:Environment
Objective Group:Climate and Climate Change
Objective Field:Ecosystem Adaptation to Climate Change
UTAS Author:Blanchard, JL (Dr Julia Blanchard)
ID Code:100212
Year Published:2015
Web of Science® Times Cited:12
Deposited By:Sustainable Marine Research Collaboration
Deposited On:2015-05-07
Last Modified:2017-10-31
Downloads:0

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