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Utility of mosquito surveillance data for spatial prioritization of vector control against dengue viruses in three Brazilian cities

Citation

Pepin, KM and Leach, CB and Marques-Toledo, C and Laass, KH and Paixio, KS and Luis, AG and Hayman, DTS and Johnson, NG and Buhnerkempe, MG and Carver, S and Grear, DA and Tsao, K and Eiras, AE and Webb, CT, Utility of mosquito surveillance data for spatial prioritization of vector control against dengue viruses in three Brazilian cities, Parasites and Vectors, 8, (98) pp. 1-15. ISSN 1756-3305 (2015) [Refereed Article]


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Copyright Statement

Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

DOI: doi:10.1186/s13071-015-0659-y

Abstract

Background

Vector control remains the primary defense against dengue fever. Its success relies on the assumption that vector density is related to disease transmission. Two operational issues include the amount by which mosquito density should be reduced to minimize transmission and the spatio-temporal allotment of resources needed to reduce mosquito density in a cost-effective manner. Recently, a novel technology, MI-Dengue, was implemented city-wide in several Brazilian cities to provide real-time mosquito surveillance data for spatial prioritization of vector control resources. We sought to understand the role of city-wide mosquito density data in predicting disease incidence in order to provide guidance for prioritization of vector control work.

Methods

We used hierarchical Bayesian regression modeling to examine the role of city-wide vector surveillance data in predicting human cases of dengue fever in space and time. We used four years of weekly surveillance data from Vitoria city, Brazil, to identify the best model structure. We tested effects of vector density, lagged case data and spatial connectivity. We investigated the generality of the best model using an additional year of data from Vitoria and two years of data from other Brazilian cities: Governador Valadares and Sete Lagoas.

Results

We found that city-wide, neighborhood-level averages of household vector density were a poor predictor of dengue-fever cases in the absence of accounting for interactions with human cases. Effects of city-wide spatial patterns were stronger than within-neighborhood or nearest-neighborhood effects. Readily available proxies of spatial relationships between human cases, such as economic status, population density or between-neighborhood roadway distance, did not explain spatial patterns in cases better than unweighted global effects.

Conclusions

For spatial prioritization of vector controls, city-wide spatial effects should be given more weight than within-neighborhood or nearest-neighborhood connections, in order to minimize city-wide cases of dengue fever. More research is needed to determine which data could best inform city-wide connectivity. Once these data become available, MI-dengue may be even more effective if vector control is spatially prioritized by considering city-wide connectivity between cases together with information on the location of mosquito density and infected mosquitos.

Item Details

Item Type:Refereed Article
Keywords:dengue virus, disease ecology
Research Division:Biological Sciences
Research Group:Evolutionary biology
Research Field:Host-parasite interactions
Objective Division:Health
Objective Group:Public health (excl. specific population health)
Objective Field:Disease distribution and transmission (incl. surveillance and response)
UTAS Author:Carver, S (Dr Scott Carver)
ID Code:100178
Year Published:2015
Web of Science® Times Cited:10
Deposited By:Zoology
Deposited On:2015-05-06
Last Modified:2017-11-01
Downloads:397 View Download Statistics

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